What Will FIFA Do If Iran Withdraws from the 2026 World Cup Due to US Conflict?

With escalating military conflict between the United States and Iran, the possibility of Iran withdrawing from the 2026 FIFA World Cup has become a real and urgent concern for FIFA, players, and millions of fans worldwide.

Iran is already qualified and placed in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. Several of their group-stage matches are scheduled to be played on United States soil, making participation extremely difficult — and potentially dangerous — amid the ongoing crisis.

FIFA has so far only said it is “monitoring developments,” but behind the scenes, the governing body has already activated contingency planning.

Here is exactly what FIFA can and will do if Iran is forced to pull out.

FIFA’s Official Contingency Plan

According to FIFA’s tournament regulations, if a team withdraws after the final draw (which took place in December 2025), the following steps are followed:

1. Replacement with the Highest-Ranked Available Team
   The most likely replacement would be the highest-ranked team that did not qualify through the regular process. This could be:
   • The winner of the inter-confederation play-off (currently scheduled for March 2026)
   • Or the next best team from the AFC (Asia) rankings who missed qualification
2. Group Format Adjustment
   If Iran withdraws, Group G would be reduced to three teams (Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand).
   • Each team would play only two group matches instead of three.
   • The top two teams would still advance to the Round of 32, along with the best third-placed teams from other groups.
3. Schedule Changes
   The match between the replacement team and the remaining Group G sides would be rescheduled quickly. FIFA has already prepared flexible dates in late May and early June 2026 to handle such emergencies.

Historical Precedents FIFA Can Follow

• Russia 2022: Russia was banned before the draw due to the invasion of Ukraine. FIFA replaced them with Poland.
• Kuwait 1982: Kuwait participated despite regional tensions, but FIFA has shown willingness to act swiftly in extreme cases.
• South Africa 2010: No major withdrawals, but backup plans were in place.

FIFA has learned from these cases and now maintains a “ready-to-replace” list of teams ranked by FIFA’s world rankings.

Current Status of Iran’s Participation

Iran’s national team and federation have not yet made any official statement about withdrawal. However, several Iranian players and officials have privately expressed deep concern about traveling to the United States amid the conflict.

FIFA Secretary General Mattias Grafström said yesterday:
“We are closely monitoring the situation in Iran. Our priority remains a safe World Cup with all qualified teams participating, but we are prepared for all scenarios.”

What This Means for the Tournament and Fans

• For Group G: The group becomes easier for Belgium and Egypt, but less competitive overall.
• For Fans: Ticket holders for Iran’s matches would likely receive refunds or the option to exchange for other games.
• For the Schedule: Minimal disruption expected — FIFA has built flexibility into the calendar precisely for situations like this.
• For the Broader Picture: A withdrawal would be a major blow to the tournament’s diversity and to Asian football, especially after Iran’s strong qualification campaign.

Will FIFA Allow Iran to Play Elsewhere?

There have been unconfirmed reports that FIFA is exploring the possibility of moving Iran’s matches to neutral venues in Canada or Mexico if the security situation in the US remains unstable. However, no decision has been made yet.

Bottom Line

FIFA is hoping for peace and Iran’s full participation. But the organization is fully prepared with clear protocols if withdrawal becomes unavoidable. A replacement team will be brought in quickly, and the tournament will continue with 48 teams — or 47 if no suitable replacement is found in time.

The 2026 World Cup is just 103 days away. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether Iran takes part in what could be one of the most politically charged World Cups in history.